Base rates and odds.
Compare a story against historical frequency before treating it as a signal.
Statistics
Read probability, risk, and performance without fooling yourself.
Statistics helps readers understand uncertainty, volatility, averages, base rates, backtests, and why good decisions can still have bad outcomes.
Core Topics
Useful statistics for finance, trading, and research.
Range and drawdown.
Understand standard deviation, drawdown, variance, and why average returns can mislead.
Relationship is not cause.
Use correlation carefully when comparing Bitcoin, stocks, gold, rates, and currencies.
Backtest humility.
Watch for overfitting, small samples, survivorship bias, regime change, and data snooping.
Statistics can reduce confusion, but it cannot remove uncertainty. Use it to improve questions, not to create false certainty.