Research Foundation

Build a process before drawing a conclusion.

Start with the original document, define what it measures, check uncertainty and risk, then decide what the evidence can support.

Start with research methods Browse source packs

Learning path

Seven checks for a stronger claim

Work through these in order when a headline, chart, or market story appears persuasive.

Find the original.

Record the publisher, publication date, and exact claim.

Understand the measure.

Check definitions, units, coverage, and missing observations.

03 · Uncertainty

Test the comparison.

Consider sample size, base rates, correlation, and noise.

Identify the downside.

Set boundaries before interpreting an opportunity.

Use context carefully.

Compare mechanisms without assuming an old outcome will repeat.

Check external forces.

Policy, trade, energy, and institutions can change the path.

Put numbers beside it.

Use a worksheet or calculator to expose assumptions.

Choose a practical guide.

Apply the method to money, investing, Bitcoin, or trading.

Quick exercise

Write a four-line evidence note.

State the claim, cite the original source with its date, list one alternative explanation, and name the observation that would change your view. Keep current claims tied to current source checks.