Archived exercises · published 15 October 2026
Practice this section's decisions.
These are retrospective educational studies, with original sources and publication dates shown on each page.
Research Foundation
Build a process before drawing a conclusion.
Start with the original document, define what it measures, check uncertainty and risk, then decide what the evidence can support.
Learning path
Seven checks for a stronger claim
Work through these in order when a headline, chart, or market story appears persuasive.
Find the original.
Record the publisher, publication date, and exact claim.
02 · DataUnderstand the measure.
Check definitions, units, coverage, and missing observations.
03 · UncertaintyTest the comparison.
Consider sample size, base rates, correlation, and noise.
04 · RiskIdentify the downside.
Set boundaries before interpreting an opportunity.
05 · HistoryUse context carefully.
Compare mechanisms without assuming an old outcome will repeat.
06 · WorldCheck external forces.
Policy, trade, energy, and institutions can change the path.
07 · PracticePut numbers beside it.
Use a worksheet or calculator to expose assumptions.
NextChoose a practical guide.
Apply the method to money, investing, Bitcoin, or trading.
Quick exercise
Write a four-line evidence note.
State the claim, cite the original source with its date, list one alternative explanation, and name the observation that would change your view. Keep current claims tied to current source checks.