A stock thesis should explain what must be true, not just why the story sounds good.

The five-part thesis.

1. Business: what does the company do and why might it endure?
2. Economics: margins, free cash flow, reinvestment runway, balance sheet.
3. Valuation: expected return range, not one magic number.
4. Risks: what could break the thesis?
5. Triggers: what evidence would change the decision?

Use filings before opinions.

Start with the 10-K, 10-Q, cash flow statement, segment notes, debt maturity schedule, and management discussion. Then compare commentary with the numbers.

The bear case belongs inside the thesis.

A thesis that only describes upside is not research. It is promotion. Write what would make the idea wrong and define the evidence that would force a review.

Primary research shelf.

Build a thesis record.