Retrospective exercise for 22 October 2026
An inflation contribution is not a price forecast
The ONS September consumer-price bulletin lets readers separate an index rate from the categories changing that rate.
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Name the two rates
Original source. The ONS reported 3.5% CPI inflation and 3.6% CPIH inflation in the 12 months to September 2026. CPIH includes owner-occupiers' housing costs; the two indices answer related but not identical questions. A 3.5% annual rate does not mean every item rose by 3.5% or that prices fell when inflation slows.
Read the contribution sentence
The ONS identifies transport, especially motor fuels, as the largest upward contribution to the change in the annual CPI and CPIH rates; restaurants and hotels made the largest partially offsetting downward contribution. Record this as an explanation of a change in the measured rate, not a forecast of next month or of your household bills.
Bring it back to a real budget
List your own recurring categories and their actual changes over the same period. Keep the personal list separate from the national basket. If a bill rises faster than the headline rate, investigate its contract and usage before inferring that the official index is wrong.
Continue learning
Use the Financial literacy route for the next concept, or browse the dated archive. Verify the original source for subsequent changes.