Before the release, write down what would change your mind

Begin with a question you can answer

A crowded calendar can encourage a vague thesis: “This week will be bullish.” That sentence does not say which observation matters, what would contradict the view, or when it should be reviewed. A more useful research question identifies the evidence and leaves room for an unexpected result.

Write three separate fields: what the official document says, what the market subsequently does, and what you infer from those observations. Do not fill the first field with a forecast or the third with a price move alone.

A paper exercise, not a trade instruction

Imagine a researcher whose hypothetical view depends on a business improving its cash generation. A central-bank headline arrives, but the company has not released new cash-flow information. The researcher records the policy event as context and leaves the company-specific question unresolved. The headline may change the environment without answering the original question.

Apply the same discipline to a Bitcoin thesis. Specify whether the question concerns custody, market liquidity, household capacity, or a price assumption. A release about one topic is not automatic evidence for every other topic.

Use a four-line evidence log

1. Question: What precise uncertainty am I trying to resolve?
2. Source: Which original document or observation could answer it?
3. Review condition: What finding would weaken the current interpretation?
4. Next step: When will I review the evidence, including the option to take no action?

For a numerical practice case, a hypothetical 1,000-unit balance that falls to 900 needs an 11.11% gain to recover: 100 divided by 900. A subsequent 10% gain reaches only 990. This is arithmetic for understanding the starting base, not a forecast of a loss or recovery.

Tie the exercise to the calendar

Use today’s official-source week-ahead review to choose one scheduled event. Record its date and source now; record its outcome only after publication. Keep an unexpected result visible instead of rewriting the original thesis afterward.

Open the decision journal template or browse all 96 blog dates.

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