NAKAMOTO

Bitcoin & money learning · Retrospective

Mining averages are not a daily schedule

Separate a long-run expectation from a guaranteed sequence.

Source foundation

Mining uses proof of work; pooling can reduce payout variability. Bitcoin developer guide: mining.

A worked example

In a deliberately simplified classroom game, a participant has one chance in ten of success per round. Ten rounds can still produce no success or several successes. Drawing the expected one win as a promised event in round ten would misrepresent the game.

Original hypothetical example. Amounts, people, events, and scenarios above are invented for learning; they are not historical observations or forecasts.

What to take from it

An average is not a timetable for individual outcomes.

Try it on paper

Write two different ten-round sequences compatible with the same game.

Keep the assumptions beside your answer. Check the result before applying the idea to a different situation.

Reading and limits

The linked source supports the foundation statement. The worked example and exercise are NAKAMOTO's educational analysis. This note does not establish current prices, product terms, investment suitability, or wallet compatibility.

Source reviewed 13 September 2026. For operational decisions, consult the current official documentation and the details of your own circumstances.